Trump, Harris Odds of Winning in Every Recent Major Poll With 17 Days Left

As the 2024 presidential race enters its final stretch, recent polls indicate momentum for former President Donald Trump in his contest against Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump has maintained strong polling numbers for two consecutive weeks, benefiting from favorable trends.
With Election Day rapidly approaching, both campaigns are working to win over the remaining undecided voters in crucial battleground states, where polling data shows an exceptionally tight race.
This week, the campaigns employed distinct strategies to sway these voters. Harris’ team ramped up its media presence, investing heavily in digital and TV ads in key battlegrounds, appearing on Charlamagne tha God’s podcast to court Black voters, and securing a rare solo interview with Fox News’ Bret Baier.
The vice president concluded the week campaigning in Michigan, making stops in Grand Rapids before hosting events in Lansing and Oakland County, near Detroit.
Meanwhile, Trump had a media blitz, participating in interviews with friendly media outlets while avoiding less favorable ones. This week, he attended a pre-taped women-only town hall with Fox host Harris Faulkner, followed by a Hispanic town hall with Univision.
On Thursday, he had a sit-down with Fox & Friends co-host Lawrence Jones at a Bronx barber shop, met with the Wall Street Journal editorial board, and gave a video interview with George “Tyrus” Murdoch for OutKick. He also spoke at the Al Smith charity dinner.
On Friday, he appeared on Fox & Friends, joined The Dan Bongino Show, and taped an interview with wrestler Mark Calaway before heading to Michigan.
A new poll by Emerson College, conducted from October 14 to 16 among 1,000 likely voters, shows the race is in a dead heat. Harris holds a slim lead with 50 percent of the vote, while Trump follows closely with 49 percent. This near-even split reflects a highly polarized electorate, with both candidates working to win over undecided voters in the critical final weeks.
A poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University, conducted from October 8 to 14 with 755 likely voters, shows Harris leading by 3 points, with 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 47 percent. While Harris maintains a steady lead, the poll highlights Trump’s resilience in retaining his core supporters. In this poll, the simple sampling error for 806 registered voters is +/-3.5 percentage points.
In contrast, a Fox News poll conducted by Beacon Research/Shaw & Company Research from October 11 to 14 among 870 likely voters shows Trump leading by 2 points, with 50 percent support compared to Harris’s 48 percent. This represents a notable shift toward Trump, reflecting growing momentum in key regions. The gains suggest that Trump’s campaign efforts in swing states may be proving effective as he narrows the gap with Harris. This poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3 percentage points.
On Friday, Nate Silver’s popular forecast confirmed the momentum shifting toward Trump, noting that his chances of winning are at their highest since August. The updated model reflected several strong polling numbers in Trump’s favor in crucial swing states like Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania.
Silver’s latest projections show Trump holding a slight edge in the Electoral College, with a 50.2 percent chance of winning, compared to Harris’ 49.5 percent — despite Harris having a 75 percent chance of winning the popular vote.
While FiveThirtyEight’s simulations also favor Trump, the model gives him a 52 out of 100 chance of winning, compared to Harris’s 48 out of 100.